12.01.09 regional analysis memo:

- approximately 30-60 days remain before israel will have to decide to embark on a large scale preemptive strike on iran

- this hinges on UN sanctions of some significance

- the russians will likely veto any resolution

- the russians have much to gain by chaos in the region as energy prices will soar

- the russians will deliver advanced air defense systems to iran sometime around the UN vote on sanctions

- the usa will not be prepared for this but drawn into the conflict nonetheless

Likelihood of Conflict: 66.7%
Estimated Duration of Conflict: 1 - 6 months
Outcome Assessment: UNKNOWN

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